Maíra Aguiar

Ikerbasque Research Associate Professor, Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)

Group Leader at Mathematical and Theoretical Biology, BCAM.

Research line:

Population Dynamics, Population Biology, Mathematical Biology /Area: Mathematical Modeling of Complex Biological Systems, Mathematical Modeling in Public Health Epidemiology.

Ramón y Cajal Researcher (2023) and member of the Basque Modeling Task Force (since 2020) during the COVID-19 response. Served on the Board of Directors of the European Society for Mathematical and Theoretical Biology (2018–2022), including as Vice President (2018–2020). Recipient of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions Seal of Excellence Award (2018).

Held positions as a Marie Curie Fellow at Università degli Studi di Trento, Italy (2019–2020), researcher with the European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET) at the University of Foggia, Italy (2018), and postdoctoral researcher at NOVA University of Lisbon (2017–2018) and Lisbon University (2012–2016). Holds dual Ph.D.s in Life Sciences from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Population Biology from Lisbon University (both 2012).

PhD in Life Sciences (2012) from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands; and in Population Biology (2012) from Lisbon University, Portugal.

2024

Article / Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccines for COVID-19 According to Sex, Comorbidity and Socioeconomic Status: A Population Study

PharmacoEconomics

Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Estadilla, C.D.S.; Stollenwerk, N.; Antoñanzas, F.; Blasco-Aguado, R.; Larrañaga, I.; Bidaurrazaga, J.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Symmetry in a multi-strain epidemiological model with distributed delay as a general cross-protection period and disease enhancement factor

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation

Steindorf, V.; Oliva, S.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Within-host models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections

Infectious Disease Modelling

Anam, V.; Guerrero, B.V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Dynamics of vector-borne diseases through the lens of systems incorporating fractional-order derivatives

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Skwara, U.; Mozyrska, D.; Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N.

Article / Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern

Scientific reports

Saldaña, F.; Stollenwerk, N.; Van Dierdonck, J.B.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Bifurcation analysis of a two infection SIR-SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity and disease enhancement

Nonlinear Dynamics

Aguiar, M.; Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Kooi, B.W.

Article / Beyond the biting - limited impact of explicit mosquito dynamics in dengue models

BMC Infectious Diseases

Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Kooi, B.W.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling

Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health

Estadilla, C.D.S.; Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics

Royal Society Open Science

Saldaña, F.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Editorial / Population and within-host dynamics of biological systems

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Pinto, C.M.A.; Aguiar, M.; Rozhnova, G.; D'Onofrio, A.

2023

Article / Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections

Journal of Mathematical Biology

Saldaña, F.; Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Article / The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study

Infectious Disease Modelling

Stollenwerk, N.; Estadilla, C.D.S.; Mar, J.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Blasco-Aguado, R.; Aguiar, M.

Article / The effects of public health measures on severe dengue cases: An optimal control approach

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Srivastav, A.K.; Steindorf, V.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe

PLoS ONE

Saldaña, F.; Daza-Torres, M.L.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Optimal vaccination strategies for a heterogeneous population using multiple objectives: The case of L1− and L2−formulations

Mathematical Biosciences

Saldaña, F.; Kebir, A.; Camacho-Gutiérrez, J.A.; Aguiar, M.

Editorial / New trends on mathematical modeling and simulation of biological systems

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Aguiar, M.; Pinto, C.M.A.; Nieto, J.J.; Ribeiro, R.M.

Note / Prescriptive, descriptive or predictive models: What approach should be taken when empirical data is limited? Reply to comments on “Mathematical models for Dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review”

Physics of Life Reviews

Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Blyuss, K.B.; Estadilla, C.D.S.; Guerrero, B.V.; Knopoff, D.; Kooi, B.W.; Mateus, L.; Srivastav, A.K.; Steindorf, V.; Stollenwerk, N.

2022

Book / Understanding COVID-19 epidemics: a multi-scale modeling approach in: Predicting Pandemics in a Globally Connected World

Birkhäuser-Springer Series “Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology”

Maíra Aguiar, Vizda Anam, Nicole Cusimano, Damián Knopoff and Nico Stollenwerk

Book / 12th International Conference Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2021 Virtual), Basque Country, Spain. (2021) Conference Proceedings

12th International Conference Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2021 Virtual), Basque Country, Spain. (2021) Conference Proceedings

Edited by Maíra Aguiar, Portugal

Article / Changes in Social and Clinical Determinants of COVID-19 Outcomes Achieved by the Vaccination Program: A Nationwide Cohort Study

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Ibarrondo, O.; Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N.; Blasco-Aguado, R.; Larrañaga, I.; Bidaurrazaga, J.; Estadilla, C.D.S.; Mar, J.

Article / Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Kooi, B.W.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain

PLoS ONE

Srivasrav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Van-Dierdonck, J.B.; Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Aguiar, M.

Article / The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID-19 vaccines performance: A modeling study

Journal of Advanced Research

Aguiar, M.; Van-Dierdonck, J.B.; Mar, J.; Stollenwerk, N.

Article / Modelling Holling type II functional response in deterministic and stochastic food chain models with mass conservation

Ecological Complexity

Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Kooi, B.W.

Article / Seasonally Forced SIR Systems Applied to Respiratory Infectious Diseases, Bifurcations, and Chaos

Computational and Mathematical Methods

Stollenwerk, N.; Spaziani, S.; Mar, J.; Arrizabalaga, I.E.; Knopoff, D.; Cusimano, N.; Anam, V.; Shrivastava, A.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission

Computational and Mathematical Methods

Knopoff, D.; Cusimano, N.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Effect of General Cross-Immunity Protection and Antibody-Dependent Enhancement in Dengue Dynamics

Computational and Mathematical Methods

Steindorf, V.; Oliva, S.; Wu, J.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Modeling Dengue Immune Responses Mediated by Antibodies: Insights on the Biological Parameters to Describe Dengue Infections

Computational and Mathematical Methods

Anam, V.; Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Knopoff, D.; Stollenwerk, N.; Soewono, E.; Aguiar, M.

Article / Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics of COVID-19: The Case Study of Italy and Spain

Computational and Mathematical Methods

Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.

Review / Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review

Physics of Life Reviews

Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Blyuss, K.B.; Estadilla, C.D.S.; Guerrero, B.V.; Knopoff, D.; Kooi, B.W.; Srivastav, A.K.; Steindorf, V.; Stollenwerk, N.

2021

Book / Eleventh Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2020), Trento, Italy. (2020). Conference Proceedings

Eleventh Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2020), Trento, Italy. (2020). Conference Proceedings

Edited by Maíra Aguiar, Portugal

Article / Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID-19 post-lockdown dynamics

Scientific Reports

Aguiar, M.; Van-Dierdonck, J.B.; Mar, J.; Cusimano, N.; Knopoff, D.; Anam, V.; Stollenwerk, N.

Article / A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: Heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination

Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences

Aguiar, M.; Dosi, G.; Knopoff, D.A.; Virgillito, M.E.

Article / Modeling dengue immune responses mediated by antibodies: A qualitative study

Biology

Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Anam, V.; Knopoff, D.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Soewono, E.

2020

Article / Modeling COVID-19: Challenges and results

European Communications in Mathematical and Theoretical Biology

Maira Aguiar

Article / The interplay between subcritical fluctuations and import: understanding COVID-19 epidemiology dynamics

COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv

Nico Stollenwerk, Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, Javier Mar, Irati Eguiguren Arrizabalaga, Nicole Cusimano, Maíra Aguiar

Article / The impact of serotype cross-protection on vaccine trials: Denvax as a case study

Vaccines

Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N.

Article / Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response

Scientific Reports

Aguiar, M.; Ortuondo, E.M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar, J.; Stollenwerk, N.

Article / Condition-specific mortality risk can explain differences in COVID-19 case fatality ratios around the globe

Public Health

Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N.

Article / Reproduction ratio and growth rates: Measures for an unfolding pandemic

PLoS ONE

Aguiar, M.; Van-Dierdonck, J.B.; Stollenwerk, N.

Article / SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID-19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences

Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N.

Note / Ethics of a partially effective dengue vaccine: Lessons from the Philippines

Vaccine

Halstead, S.B.; Katzelnick, L.C.; Russell, P.K.; Markoff, L.; Aguiar, M.; Dans, L.R.; Dans, A.L.

Review / SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID-19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework

COMMUN. BIOMATH. SCI.

Maira Aguiar and Nico Stollenwerk

Epidemiological and economic evaluation of public health disease control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic

Universidad del País Vasco

Carlo Estadilla - In preparation

Modeling infectious disease dynamics and control: immune responses and interplay between pathogens

Universidad del País Vasco

Vizda Anam - In preparation

2024

3rd Mathematical Models in Epidemiology (MME) Course, from March to June at Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Spain – 24 lecture hours

2023

2nd Mathematical Models in Epidemiology (MME) Course, from March to June at Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Spain – 24 lecture hours

2022

1st Mathematical Models in Epidemiology (MME) Course, from March to June at Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Spain – 25 lecture hours

Stochastic processes and applications Course, Department of Mathematics at Universidade Nova de Lisboa (FCT/UNL), Lisbon, Portugal – 6 lecture hours

2021

Advanced Summer School on Applied Dynamics in Systems and Synthetic Biology, Centre de Recerca Matemàtica (CRM) Barcelona, Spain.

2024

Organizer and member of the scientific committee of the 15th International Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2024, FCT NOVA, Nova University Lisboa, Portugal (250 participants from 33 countries)

Since 2022: Member of the Editorial Board of Physics of Life Reviews Journal (Q1)

Since 2o22: Academic Editor of PLoS One (Q1)

Guest Editor of the Special Issue “Population and Within-Host Dynamics of Biological System” for the Chaos, Solitons & Fractals Journal (Q1)

referee for scientific journals covering diverse research areas. To cite some: “The Lancet Infectious Diseases”, “Scientific Reports”, “Journal of Theoretical Biology”, “ Ecological Complexity Journal”, “PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases”, “Journal of Mathematical Biology”, "Chaos, Solitons & Fractals", "Physics of Life Review", "Bulletin of Mathematical Biology", "Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences"

2023

Member of the Scientific Committee of the 8th International Arab Conference on Mathematics and Computations

Examiner for Master Thesis, Laís Zorzo Buzo, Instituto de Matemática, Estatística e Computação Científica, University of Campinas, Brazil

Examiner for Habilitation Defense Prof. Amira Kebir, Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tunis, Université de Tunis, Tunisia

Organizer, chair and member of the scientific committee of the 14th International Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2023), Bizkaia Aretoa Center, Bilbao – Basque Country, Spain (220 participants from 28 countries)

Organizer of the Sympoisum “Multi-scale Modeling Approaches in Epidemiological Dynamics”, at Dynamics Days Europe, Naples, Italy

Organizer of the Sesión Especial “Métodos y Modelos Matemáticos con Aplicaciones Biomédicas” at the II Encuentro Conjunto RSME-UMA, Ronda, Spain

Editor for book Birkhäuser-Springer Series “Predicting Pandemics in a Globally Connected World, Volume 2” in collaboration with Nicola Bellomo, Granada University, Spain, and Mark A. J. Chaplain, University of St Andrews, UK

2022

Member of the Scientific Committee of 12th European Conference of Mathematics and Theoretical Biology (ECMTB 2020+). Due to COVID19 pandemic, this conference will take place in 2022.

Member of the Scientific Committee of the Conference in Nonlinear Science and Complexity

Organizer, chair and member of the scientific committee of the 13th Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2022 Virtual)

Leading Guest Editor of the Special Issue “New Trends on Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Biological Systems” for the Chaos, Solitons & Fractals Journal (Q1)

Member of the Spanish Research Agency Evaluation Committee

PhD Thesis Referee: Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, School of Advanced Sciences, Vellore Institute of Technology, Chennai, India.

2021

Organizer, chair and member of the scientific committee of the 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2021 Virtual).

Organizer of the Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting (Virtual SMB 2021), University of California Riverside (UCR), USA.

Leading organizer of the “MTB Seminar Series”.

Organizers and chair of the Mini-Symposium on Mathematical Biology, International CMMSE conference and the First conference on high performance computing (CHPC), Cadiz, Spain.

2020

Organizer, chair and member of the scientific committee of the 11th Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS 2020).

Group leader at BCAM “Mathematical and Theoretical Biology”.

Member of the BCAM Gender Equality Commission

PI of the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Research Line at Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM).

2019

Editor for book series SEMA SIMAI Springer Series “Current Trends in Dynamical Systems in Biology and Natural Sciences” (2019).

Member of the Basque Modeling Task Force (BMTF) created to assist the Basque Health managers and the Basque Government during the COVID-19 responses (From March 2020 to present).

2022

Ramón y Cajal (RyC21) Tenure Track Position / Spanish Government.

2021

Contributed Talk Award at the Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting (Virtual SMB 2021).

Within the COVID-19 Modeling Task Force (BMTF), the work developed my me and by my colleagues was recently (Oct. 2021) publicly acknowledged by the Lehendakari, the President of the Basque Government.

2022

Conference organization | 13th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS APPLIED TO BIOLOGY AND NATURAL SCIENCES (DSABNS 2022) - BOOK OF ABSTRACTS

13th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS APPLIED TO BIOLOGY AND NATURAL SCIENCES (DSABNS 2022) - BOOK OF ABSTRACTS - Conference organization

Maíra Aguiar

2021

Conference organization | 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABND 2021)

12th Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABND 2021) - Conference organization

Maíra Aguiar

Conference organization | Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting (Virtual SMB 2021)

Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting (Virtual SMB 2021) - Conference organization

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control

XVI SEMBIOMAT – International Biomathematics Seminar organized by the Peruvian Society of Applied and Computational Mathematics (SPMAC), Peru - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control and beyond

Indo-US Conference -II “A changing trajectory into the future, from past to post COVID-19 pandemic, DMACS - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | On the origin of complex dynamics in multi-strain dengue models

Infectious Disease Outbreaks Webinar - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control

Mini-Symposium on Mathematical Biology, International CMMSE conference and the First conference on high performance computing (CHPC), Cadiz, Spain - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | On the origin of complex dynamics in multi-strain dengue models

Mini-Symposium on Mathematical Biology, International CMMSE conference and the First conference on high performance computing (CHPC), Cadiz, Spain - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control

Symposium on Biomathematics (SYMOMATH 2021), Indonesia. - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | On the origin of complex dynamics in multi-strain dengue models

Conference on Recent Developments in Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences (ICRDMMS 2021) held by Calcutta Mathematical Society, India - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control

Mathematics of COVID-19” Webinar - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | "Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control”

Interdisciplinary Symposium “Prediction, Death and Memory: Numbers | Spaces | Texts - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control

Conference for Mathematical Population Dynamics, Ecology and Evolution (MPDEE21) - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control

12th International Conference Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (VIRTUAL DSABNS2021) - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Oral presentation | The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID-19 vaccines performance: a modeling study

European Dynamics Days, Nice, France. - Oral presentation

Maíra Aguiar

Oral presentation | Modeling COVID-19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control

Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting (Virtual SMB 2021) - Oral presentation

Maíra Aguiar

2020

Invited talk | On the origin of complex dynamics in multi-strain dengue models and its impact on public health interventions

11th International Conference Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABNS2020), Trento, Italy - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | My personal experience with a Marie Skłodowska Curie Fellowship

Crash Course 2019/2020 on Research Funding, Intellectual Property and Start up Creation Open series of seminars’ organized by Research Support and Knowledge Transfer Division - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID 19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control measure response

Dynamics Days Digital 2020 (MS 14 Modelling the dynamics of Covid–19 pandemic) - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

Invited talk | Modeling COVID 19 in the Basque Country: from introduction to control measure response

Statistics and Risk Management Seminar Department of Mathematics - Invited talk

Maíra Aguiar

2019

Conference organization | Conference Organizer, Chair and member of the Scientific Committee

11th Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (DSABND 2020) - Conference organization

Maira Aguiar

Oral presentation | Invited Speaker at the 2nd CISAS Biomathematics Workshop, Palermo, Italy. "On the origin of complex dOn the origin of complex dynamics in multi-strain dengue models”ynamics in multi-strain dengue models”

Maíra Aguiar

Oral presentation | Invited Speaker at at Basque Center for Climate Change (BC3), Bilbao, Basque Country - Spain. "The impact of empirical data analysis on public health intervention: dengue fever, a case study"

Maíra Aguiar